The First Bet

A podcast · hosted by Martin Tobias · Incisive Ventures

Conviction
before proof.

The best founders, investors, and poker players all do the same thing: commit capital to a future they can't see, knowing most of these bets won't pay off. The First Bet drags them back to the moment before they knew — what they had to go on, and why they bet anyway.

RSS
Season 01 · incoming First guests confirmed: Jason Calacanis, Phil Gordon, Alec Torelli. Subscribe below to catch episode 01 ↓

The Lens

Every guest has one rule they carry into every bet.

Not a story — a portable heuristic. The thing they reach for when the information is thin and the chips are already in.

I'm not a risk taker. I'm a risk trader.
Alec Torelli Professional poker player
Your guest's lens lands here.
One new rule, every episode.

The Feed

Episodes incoming

Season 01 is being recorded now. First confirmed guests:

  • Jason Calacanis The early check everyone said was insane.
  • Phil Gordon Reading the table — at the felt and in the cap table.
  • Alec Torelli Not a risk taker. A risk trader.
Get episode 01 in your inbox

The Host

The interview every operator never gets asked.

Most interviews are a victory lap. This one starts in the fog. Host Martin Tobias has made the bet three ways — as a CEO, a pre-seed investor where nine of ten checks fail by design, and a poker player. So every conversation is two people who've pushed chips into the unknown, comparing notes on how you decide when you can't know.

More about the host

The Newsletter

Never miss a bet.

Each episode: the bet, the Lens, and the transcript — the book, serialized.

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